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CardShark Content - Adam Fischer (7/21/2002)

TITLE: OBC Metagame Statistics – Just the Facts



Since I’ve had the opportunity to play in and observe quite a few OBC tournaments over the past couple of weeks, I kept track of the decks I observed being played so I could get an idea of the metagame. Also, I thought it might be helpful to write an article with this information, so let’s jump right in:



I observed parts of the following OBC tournaments:


- Side event at Origins on July 4


- $250 side event at Origins on July 4


- GP Cleveland Trial at Origins on July 4


- Side event at Origins on July 5


- Side event at Origins on July 6


- PTQ at Origins on July 6


- GP Cleveland Trial in Mountain

Mountain
MountainSet: Arabian Nights
Color:
Land
Type:
Land
Rarity:
C
Artist:
Douglas Shuler
Text:
Tap to add R to your mana pool.
View, CA on July 13



At each of these tournaments, I made note of what decks were being played around me, and if and when I had extra time, I walked around to take note of even more decks. Note that I don’t claim that this sampling is complete or even entirely random, and some decks may have even been double-counted since I took note of decks over many rounds. However, given the large number of decks I observed, the end results obtained should give a good picture of the metagame. I also tried to slant my observations at least a little bit towards the decks that were doing 50/50 or better, as those decks are the ones that should be of most interest to people.



In the data that follows, I have identified the decks by their color(s) and type, if applicable and known. Major colors are capitalized, and splash colors are lower-case. Also, events are listed by type and date, with a note as to whether these were just decks observed "in general" throughout the event, whether they had a specific record, whether they were in the Top 8, etc. Looking at the all of the decks played at each event, we have the following raw data for the 199 observations: (decks ordered roughly by popularity, with similar decks next to each other):




































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































Deck Numbers - ALL DATA
















Side 7/4


$250 7/4


GPT 7/4


GPT 7/4


Side 7/5


Side 7/6


PTQ 7/6


PTQ 7/6


PTQ 7/6


PTQ 7/6


PTQ 7/6


PTQ 7/6


GPT 7/13


GPT 7/13



General


General


General


Top 8


2-1 +


General


General


5-0/4-0-1


4-1/3-1-1


3-2/2-2-1


2-3


Top 8


General


Top 8


UG Quiet Roar


5


4


7


3


4


2


10


1


6


1


1


2


5


4


UG non-Quiet Roar


1


1


1



1



3



4







Wu Weenie


1



1


1


1



4



3


2



1


1



Mono-W Weenie




1





3



3


1




3


1


Wu Weenie Birds


1













2



Wg Weenie














1



GW Beatdown


2


2


1


3


3


4


6




1




1



Mono-B


1


1



1


1


1


2


1


3


1



1


9


2


Ugw Wake Combo








3


1



1




1



Ugw Unknown




1



1


1


3




1


1





RG Aggro


1



2



1



1



1





1



BG Braids


2


1




1



2









BU Aggro Control






2



2


1


1


2



1


1



UB Psychatog

Psychatog
PsychatogSet: Odyssey
Cost:
3
Color:
Multicolor
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Atog
Rarity:
U
Number:
292
Artist:
Edward P. Beard, Jr.
Power:
1
Toughness:
2
Text:
Discard a card from your hand: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn. Remove two cards in your graveyard from the game: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn.







1




1




1



BU Grave Mists







2










UW Confinement








2









UG Shrine Overrun

Overrun
OverrunSet: Tempest
Cost:
5
Color:
Green
Type:
Sorcery
Rarity:
U
Artist:
Jeff Miracola
Text:
All creatures you control get +3/+3 and gain trample until end of turn.













1


1


BG Beatdown






1











Gu Overrun

Overrun
OverrunSet: Tempest
Cost:
5
Color:
Green
Type:
Sorcery
Rarity:
U
Artist:
Jeff Miracola
Text:
All creatures you control get +3/+3 and gain trample until end of turn.






1










UG Terravore

Terravore
TerravoreSet: Odyssey
Cost:
3
Color:
Green
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Lhurgoyf
Rarity:
R
Number:
278
Artist:
Jim Nelson
Power:
*
Toughness:
*
Text:
Trample Terravore's power and toughness are each equal to the number of land cards in all graveyards.






1










Bu Infest

Infest
InfestSet: Onslaught
Cost:
3
Color:
Black
Type:
Sorcery
Rarity:
U
Number:
157
Artist:
Ben Thompson
Text:
All creatures get -2/-2 until end of turn.
ation







1









BUG










1







Mono-R











1






Battle of Wits

Battle of Wits
Battle of WitsSet: Odyssey
Cost:
5
Color:
Blue
Type:
Enchantment
Rarity:
R
Number:
69
Artist:
Mark Brill
Text:
At the beginning of your upkeep, if you have 200 or more cards in your library, you win the game.













1



BR














1



UGrw














1



TOTAL


14


9


14


8


16


12


43


4


22


12


2


5


30


8




Now, the above data is helpful but it really needs to be worked with some more to give us a clearer picture of the metagame. So, the next step is to group the decks to reduce the clutter. This is done to make the data easier to digest as well as because sometimes I was unable to determine the EXACT type of a given deck just by viewing it for a few seconds. I have chosen to group the decks as follows:


- "UG" will include both true "Quiet Roar" version as well as versions that either just "splashed" Quiet Speculation

Quiet Speculation
Quiet SpeculationSet: Judgment
Cost:
2
Color:
Blue
Type:
Sorcery
Rarity:
U
Number:
49
Artist:
John Avon

Text:
Search target player's Library for up to three cards with flashback and put them into that players graveyard. Then that player shuffles his or her library.
or didn’t use it, as there weren’t too many cards different between these deck types


- "White Weenie" will include all versions, whether they were mono-White or splashed a color and whether they were birds-focused or not


- "Ugw" will include both the decks known to use Mirari

Mirari
MirariSet: Odyssey
Cost:
5
Color:
Colorless
Type:
Artifact
Rarity:
R
Number:
303
Artist:
Donato Giancola
Text:
Whenever you play an instant or sorcery spell, you may pay 3. If you do, put a copy of that spell onto the stack. You may choose new targets for the copy.
’s Wake and Time Stretch
Time Stretch
Time StretchSet: Odyssey
Cost:
10
Color:
Blue
Type:
Sorcery
Rarity:
R
Number:
108
Artist:
Paolo Parente
Text:
Target player takes two extra turns after this one.
, and those where the exact cards weren’t know, but could have involved the combo or at least the Wake


- "Other" will include all decks that don’t belong to one of the above grouping and made 3 or less appearances on the above list


- All other decks will stay the same



Upon making the above changes, we get:



















































































































































































































Deck Numbers - CATEGORIZED















Side 7/4


$250 7/4


GPT 7/4


GPT 7/4


Side 7/5


Side 7/6


PTQ 7/6


PTQ 7/6


PTQ 7/6


PTQ 7/6


PTQ 7/6


PTQ 7/6


GPT 7/13


GPT 7/13



General


General


General


Top 8


2-1 +


General


General


5-0/4-0-1


4-1/3-1-1


3-2/2-2-1


2-3


Top 8


General


Top 8


UG


6


5


8


3


5


2


13


1


10


1


1


2


5


4


White Weenie


2



2


1


1



7



6


3



1


7


1


GW Beatdown


2


2


1


3


3


4


6




1




1



Mono-B


1


1



1


1


1


2


1


3


1



1


9


2


Ugw




1



1


1


6


1



2


1



1



RG Aggro


1



2



1



1



1





1



BG Braids


2


1




1



2









BU Aggro Control






2



2


1


1


2



1


1



Other






1


4


4



1


2




5


1


TOTAL


14


9


14


8


16


12


43


4


22


12


2


5


30


8




Breaking down the above information by first looking at the presence of decks in events overall, without regard to which ones posted exceptionally good records, yields:





































































































































Deck Numbers - In General









Side 7/4


$250 7/4


GPT 7/4


Side 7/5


Side 7/6


PTQ 7/6


GPT 7/13




General


General


General


2-1 +


General


General


General


TOTAL


UG


6


5


8


5


2


13


5


44


White Weenie


2



2


1



7


7


19


GW Beatdown


2


2


1


3


4


6


1


19


Mono-B


1


1



1


1


2


9


15


Ugw




1


1


1


6


1


10


RG Aggro


1



2


1



1


1


6


BG Braids


2


1



1



2



6


BU Aggro Control





2



2


1


5


Other





1


4


4


5


14


TOTAL


14


9


14


16


12


43


30


138




And the same information in percentages:



























































































































Deck Percentages - In General









Side 7/4


$250 7/4


GPT 7/4


Side 7/5


Side 7/6


PTQ 7/6


GPT 7/13




General


General


General


2-1 +


General


General


General


OVERALL


UG


43%


56%


57%


31%


17%


30%


17%


32%


White Weenie


14%


0%


14%


6%


0%


16%


23%


14%


GW Beatdown


14%


22%


7%


19%


33%


14%


3%


14%


Mono-B


7%


11%


0%


6%


8%


5%


30%


11%


Ugw


0%


0%


7%


6%


8%


14%


3%


7%


RG Aggro


7%


0%


14%


6%


0%


2%


3%


4%


BG Braids


14%


11%


0%


6%


0%


5%


0%


4%


BU Aggro Control


0%


0%


0%


13%


0%


5%


3%


4%


Other


0%


0%


0%


6%


33%


9%


17%


10%




Looking at the information above, we can make the following observations:


- UG was by far the most played deck, but its popularity appeared to diminish after the first day of OBC events.


- White Weenie and GW Beatdown were the next most popular decks, with White Weenie’s popularity rising near the end and GW Beatdown’s popularity diminishing.


- Mono-B was the next most popular deck, but this result was influenced strongly by the most recent GP Trial.


- The four most played decks made up 71% of the overall field, with no other individual deck variant (since Ugw had multiple variants) making up more than 5% of the field.



Now, let’s look at the decks that did especially well:











































































































Deck Numbers - Top Performers







PTQ 7/6


PTQ 7/6


PTQ 7/6


GPT 7/4


GPT 7/13




4-1/3-1-1


5-0/4-0-1


Top 8


Top 8


Top 8


TOTAL


UG


10


1


2


3


4


20


White Weenie


6



1


1


1


9


GW Beatdown





3



3


Mono-B


3


1


1


1


2


8


Ugw



1





1


RG Aggro


1






1


BG Braids







0


BU Aggro Control


1


1


1




3


Other


1





1


2


TOTAL


22


4


5


8


8


47




























































































































Deck Percentages - Top Performers









PTQ 7/6


PTQ 7/6


PTQ 7/6


GPT 7/4


GPT 7/13



% of general


´´Strength



4-1/3-1-1


5-0/4-0-1


Top 8


Top 8


Top 8


OVERALL


field


Ratio´´


UG


45%


25%


40%


38%


50%


43%


32%


1.3


White Weenie


27%


0%


20%


13%


13%


19%


14%


1.4


GW Beatdown


0%


0%


0%


38%


0%


6%


14%


0.5


Mono-B


14%


25%


20%


13%


25%


17%


11%


1.6


Ugw


0%


25%


0%


0%


0%


2%


7%


0.3


RG Aggro


5%


0%


0%


0%


0%


2%


4%


0.5


BG Braids


0%


0%


0%


0%


0%


0%


4%


-


BU Aggro Control


5%


25%


20%


0%


0%


6%


4%


1.8


Other


5%


0%


0%


0%


13%


4%


10%


0.4




In the last columns of the Deck Percentages table above, the general field statistics from earlier are repeated for ease of comparison. Also, there is a new column that I have called the "Strength Ratio" which is the ratio of a deck’s percentage of the field of top performers to the deck’s percentage of the general field. Decks with ratios above 1.0 can be considered strong decks, and decks with ratios below 1.0 can be considered weak decks.



From this information, we can conclude the following:


- The "Decks to Beat" appear to be UG primarily and White Weenie and Mono-B secondarily. These decks combined represented 57% of the overall field and 79% of the top performers.


- GW Beatdown appears to have a particular problem – although it was a large percentage of the field overall, it was lacking at the most recent GPT, and it was also lacking among the top performers.



So, when testing any deck, I would suggest imposing the following requirements:


1) The deck must at least be even with, and preferably beat, UG


2) Ideally, the deck should also do well against Mono-B and/or White Weenie.


3) It would be nice if the deck did well against other decks in the field, but this is only a bonus and should not be the primary focus.



Hope that helps and happy testing!



Adam Fischer


adam_mba@yahoo.com



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