• Magic: The Gathering
  • Magic: The Gathering Online

Which game do you want to buy from?

How to Buy at a Glance

  • 1. Search for items
  • 2. Purchase via PayPal or CC
  • 3. Receive items in the mail
    (usually in less than a week!)
Want Magic prices from CardShark.com on your Mobile device? - Try the Decked Builder app

CardShark Content - Adam Fischer (11/20/2002)

[Editor's Note: Please go to StarCity to get the Excel file that has EVERY match result from PT Houston. This article is still a good read without the file, but the spreadsheet makes it SO much better. Take a look at StarCity for the top decks in their database too! Just copy and paste the link below into your browser.]



http://www.starcitygames.com/php/news/expandnews.php?Article=4083



This article is intended to be a companion to the spreadsheet and associated instructional article I posted on StarCity. I encourage you, if you haven’t already, to download the spreadsheet and read the instructional article, as that way this article will be far more meaningful. In addition, it would be helpful to refer to the spreadsheet while reading this article. The spreadsheet contains data on the prevalence and performance of the various Extended deck types at PT Houston. Please do let me know at adam_mba@yahoo.com if you find this information useful or have any suggestions or questions.

I feel the most useful place to start looking at the data is by looking at the “Deck Performance” worksheet, and then to look at the “Matchups” and “Matchups – Adjusted” worksheets for additional information. So without further ado, here are the main conclusions I feel can be derived from the statistical data:


METAGAME:

At a high level, the field looks as follows:
- 25% Reanimator and Hermit Druid
Hermit Druid
Hermit DruidSet: Stronghold
Cost:
2
Color:
Green
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Druid
Rarity:
R
Number:
58
Artist:
Heather Hudson
Power:
1
Toughness:
1
Text:
G, T: Reveal cards from the top of your library until you reveal a basic land card. Put that card into your hand and put all other revealed cards into your graveyard.

- 17% The Rock
- 19% Various combo-ish decks (Aluren
Aluren
AlurenSet: Tempest
Cost:
4
Color:
Green
Type:
Enchantment
Rarity:
R
Artist:
April Lee
Text:
Any player may play a creature card with total casting cost 3 or less whenever he or she could play an instant and without paying its casting cost.
, Ghoul Burst, Enchantress, and Tinker
Tinker
TinkerSet: Urza's Legacy
Cost:
3
Color:
Blue
Type:
Sorcery
Rarity:
U
Number:
45
Artist:
Mike Raabe
Text:
At the time you play Tinker, sacrifice an artifact.Search your library for an artifact card and put that artifact into play. Shuffle your library afterward.
)
- 15% Various aggressive decks (Sligh, Suicide Black, and White Weenie)
- 13% Various control-ish decks (Psychatog
Psychatog
PsychatogSet: Odyssey
Cost:
3
Color:
Multicolor
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Atog
Rarity:
U
Number:
292
Artist:
Edward P. Beard, Jr.
Power:
1
Toughness:
2
Text:
Discard a card from your hand: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn. Remove two cards in your graveyard from the game: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn.
, BUG, Zombie Upheaval
Upheaval
UpheavalSet: Odyssey
Cost:
6
Color:
Blue
Type:
Sorcery
Rarity:
R
Number:
113
Artist:
Kev Walker
Text:
Return all permanents to their owners' hands.
, and Turbo Oath)
- 12% Other decks


OVERALL DECK TYPE PERFORMANCE:

The Extended environment is rather balanced, but there appear to be some clear early winners and losers. Looking at the win percentages, (in the “Overall, Avg. Win %” column), most of the major deck types won between 40% and 60% of their matches, with the only exceptions being 2 of the lesser-played decks (and thus the decks with less data), Zombie Upheaval
Upheaval
UpheavalSet: Odyssey
Cost:
6
Color:
Blue
Type:
Sorcery
Rarity:
R
Number:
113
Artist:
Kev Walker
Text:
Return all permanents to their owners' hands.
(at 31%) and Turbo Oath (at 69%).


DETAILED DECK PERFORMANCE:

Certain deck types performed particularly well overall and certain deck types performed particularly well or poorly in certain matchups and are thus best suited to certain metagames. Following is an analysis of the performance of each major deck type, starting with the deck types that performed best at PT Houston: (note that I focus more on the performance data that is most plentiful and thus most reliable)

1) Turbo Oath:

Performed the best BY FAR, at 69%. This was a full 9% above the next-best-performing deck. Also, Turbo Oath’s performance doesn’t change much under different metagame assumptions. However, it must be cautioned that there was less data available for this deck type than for many other deck types (5 decks and 64 matches). Therefore, the performance data may be overly reliant on the specific matchups, specific players, etc. That said, the deck’s performance still appears to be rather robust. For instance, even if you eliminate Justin Gary’s 13-1-1 record with the deck, it STILL has the highest win rate, at 62%.

Best Matchups: The Rock (won 92% of its 13 matches!)
Worst Matchups: None were below 50%, though Aluren
Aluren
AlurenSet: Tempest
Cost:
4
Color:
Green
Type:
Enchantment
Rarity:
R
Artist:
April Lee
Text:
Any player may play a creature card with total casting cost 3 or less whenever he or she could play an instant and without paying its casting cost.
was at 50%

2) Psychatog
Psychatog
PsychatogSet: Odyssey
Cost:
3
Color:
Multicolor
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Atog
Rarity:
U
Number:
292
Artist:
Edward P. Beard, Jr.
Power:
1
Toughness:
2
Text:
Discard a card from your hand: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn. Remove two cards in your graveyard from the game: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn.
:

Performed well above average, at 58%. Win rate may go down somewhat if Turbo Oath, a bad matchup for Psychatog
Psychatog
PsychatogSet: Odyssey
Cost:
3
Color:
Multicolor
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Atog
Rarity:
U
Number:
292
Artist:
Edward P. Beard, Jr.
Power:
1
Toughness:
2
Text:
Discard a card from your hand: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn. Remove two cards in your graveyard from the game: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn.
, increases its prevalence.

Best Matchups: Reanimator, Hermit Druid
Hermit Druid
Hermit DruidSet: Stronghold
Cost:
2
Color:
Green
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Druid
Rarity:
R
Number:
58
Artist:
Heather Hudson
Power:
1
Toughness:
1
Text:
G, T: Reveal cards from the top of your library until you reveal a basic land card. Put that card into your hand and put all other revealed cards into your graveyard.

Worst Matchups: Ghoul Burst, Suicide Black, Turbo Oath

3) Hermit Druid
Hermit Druid
Hermit DruidSet: Stronghold
Cost:
2
Color:
Green
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Druid
Rarity:
R
Number:
58
Artist:
Heather Hudson
Power:
1
Toughness:
1
Text:
G, T: Reveal cards from the top of your library until you reveal a basic land card. Put that card into your hand and put all other revealed cards into your graveyard.
:
Did well at Houston, but this may have been large due to favorable matchups. For instance, the deck won 69% of its games against The Rock, and 24% of its matches were against the Rock – well above the 17% of the field that The Rock represented. Also, three of the decks which appear to be tough matchups for Hermit Druid
Hermit Druid
Hermit DruidSet: Stronghold
Cost:
2
Color:
Green
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Druid
Rarity:
R
Number:
58
Artist:
Heather Hudson
Power:
1
Toughness:
1
Text:
G, T: Reveal cards from the top of your library until you reveal a basic land card. Put that card into your hand and put all other revealed cards into your graveyard.
Psychatog
Psychatog
PsychatogSet: Odyssey
Cost:
3
Color:
Multicolor
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Atog
Rarity:
U
Number:
292
Artist:
Edward P. Beard, Jr.
Power:
1
Toughness:
2
Text:
Discard a card from your hand: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn. Remove two cards in your graveyard from the game: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn.
, Suicide Black, and Turbo Oath – were among the best performing decks, so if these decks increase in numbers, Hermit Druid
Hermit Druid
Hermit DruidSet: Stronghold
Cost:
2
Color:
Green
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Druid
Rarity:
R
Number:
58
Artist:
Heather Hudson
Power:
1
Toughness:
1
Text:
G, T: Reveal cards from the top of your library until you reveal a basic land card. Put that card into your hand and put all other revealed cards into your graveyard.
may not perform as well.

Best Matchups: The Rock, Aluren
Aluren
AlurenSet: Tempest
Cost:
4
Color:
Green
Type:
Enchantment
Rarity:
R
Artist:
April Lee
Text:
Any player may play a creature card with total casting cost 3 or less whenever he or she could play an instant and without paying its casting cost.

Worst Matchups: Sligh, Suicide Black, Turbo Oath, Psychatog
Psychatog
PsychatogSet: Odyssey
Cost:
3
Color:
Multicolor
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Atog
Rarity:
U
Number:
292
Artist:
Edward P. Beard, Jr.
Power:
1
Toughness:
2
Text:
Discard a card from your hand: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn. Remove two cards in your graveyard from the game: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn.


4) Suicide Black:

Did slightly above average at Houston, but might well improve its performance in future metagames since it performs well against Hermit Druid
Hermit Druid
Hermit DruidSet: Stronghold
Cost:
2
Color:
Green
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Druid
Rarity:
R
Number:
58
Artist:
Heather Hudson
Power:
1
Toughness:
1
Text:
G, T: Reveal cards from the top of your library until you reveal a basic land card. Put that card into your hand and put all other revealed cards into your graveyard.
and Psychatog
Psychatog
PsychatogSet: Odyssey
Cost:
3
Color:
Multicolor
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Atog
Rarity:
U
Number:
292
Artist:
Edward P. Beard, Jr.
Power:
1
Toughness:
2
Text:
Discard a card from your hand: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn. Remove two cards in your graveyard from the game: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn.
– two decks whose prevalence might increase – and performs poorly against the various “other” decks – whose prevalence should decrease. Also, it had more than its share of matchups – 21% vs. the field average of 17% - against The Rock, one of its worst matchups, at only a 25% win rate.

Best Matchups: Aluren
Aluren
AlurenSet: Tempest
Cost:
4
Color:
Green
Type:
Enchantment
Rarity:
R
Artist:
April Lee
Text:
Any player may play a creature card with total casting cost 3 or less whenever he or she could play an instant and without paying its casting cost.
, Reanimator
Worst Matchups: Other Decks, Sligh, The Rock

5) Aluren
Aluren
AlurenSet: Tempest
Cost:
4
Color:
Green
Type:
Enchantment
Rarity:
R
Artist:
April Lee
Text:
Any player may play a creature card with total casting cost 3 or less whenever he or she could play an instant and without paying its casting cost.
:

Did slightly above average and this does not change with different metagame assumptions.

Best Matchups: The Rock
Worst Matchups: Hermit Druid
Hermit Druid
Hermit DruidSet: Stronghold
Cost:
2
Color:
Green
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Druid
Rarity:
R
Number:
58
Artist:
Heather Hudson
Power:
1
Toughness:
1
Text:
G, T: Reveal cards from the top of your library until you reveal a basic land card. Put that card into your hand and put all other revealed cards into your graveyard.
, Suicide Black

6) The Rock:

Did right about average at Houston, but its performance may decrease significantly if Hermit Druid
Hermit Druid
Hermit DruidSet: Stronghold
Cost:
2
Color:
Green
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Druid
Rarity:
R
Number:
58
Artist:
Heather Hudson
Power:
1
Toughness:
1
Text:
G, T: Reveal cards from the top of your library until you reveal a basic land card. Put that card into your hand and put all other revealed cards into your graveyard.
and Turbo Oath increase in numbers.

Best Matchups: Suicide Black
Worst Matchups: Hermit Druid
Hermit Druid
Hermit DruidSet: Stronghold
Cost:
2
Color:
Green
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Druid
Rarity:
R
Number:
58
Artist:
Heather Hudson
Power:
1
Toughness:
1
Text:
G, T: Reveal cards from the top of your library until you reveal a basic land card. Put that card into your hand and put all other revealed cards into your graveyard.
, Turbo Oath, Aluren
Aluren
AlurenSet: Tempest
Cost:
4
Color:
Green
Type:
Enchantment
Rarity:
R
Artist:
April Lee
Text:
Any player may play a creature card with total casting cost 3 or less whenever he or she could play an instant and without paying its casting cost.


7) Sligh:

Did just slightly below average.

Best Matchups: Suicide Black, Hermit Druid
Hermit Druid
Hermit DruidSet: Stronghold
Cost:
2
Color:
Green
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Druid
Rarity:
R
Number:
58
Artist:
Heather Hudson
Power:
1
Toughness:
1
Text:
G, T: Reveal cards from the top of your library until you reveal a basic land card. Put that card into your hand and put all other revealed cards into your graveyard.

Worst Matchups: Reanimator, Turbo Oath? (but only one match of data)

8) Reanimator:

Did just slightly below average overall, although the mono-Black version performed particularly well.

Best Matchups: Sligh, Tinker
Tinker
TinkerSet: Urza's Legacy
Cost:
3
Color:
Blue
Type:
Sorcery
Rarity:
U
Number:
45
Artist:
Mike Raabe
Text:
At the time you play Tinker, sacrifice an artifact.Search your library for an artifact card and put that artifact into play. Shuffle your library afterward.

Worst Matchups: Psychatog
Psychatog
PsychatogSet: Odyssey
Cost:
3
Color:
Multicolor
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Atog
Rarity:
U
Number:
292
Artist:
Edward P. Beard, Jr.
Power:
1
Toughness:
2
Text:
Discard a card from your hand: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn. Remove two cards in your graveyard from the game: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn.
, Suicide Black

9) Ghoul Burst:

Did just slightly below average, but there are signs it did particularly poorly against Herit Druid and Turbo Oath, which may not bode well.

Best Matchups: Psychatog
Psychatog
PsychatogSet: Odyssey
Cost:
3
Color:
Multicolor
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Atog
Rarity:
U
Number:
292
Artist:
Edward P. Beard, Jr.
Power:
1
Toughness:
2
Text:
Discard a card from your hand: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn. Remove two cards in your graveyard from the game: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn.

Worst Matchups: The Rock, Suicide Black

10) White Weenie:

Did just slightly below average.

Best Matchups: Aluren
Aluren
AlurenSet: Tempest
Cost:
4
Color:
Green
Type:
Enchantment
Rarity:
R
Artist:
April Lee
Text:
Any player may play a creature card with total casting cost 3 or less whenever he or she could play an instant and without paying its casting cost.
, Psychatog
Psychatog
PsychatogSet: Odyssey
Cost:
3
Color:
Multicolor
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Atog
Rarity:
U
Number:
292
Artist:
Edward P. Beard, Jr.
Power:
1
Toughness:
2
Text:
Discard a card from your hand: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn. Remove two cards in your graveyard from the game: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn.
, Suicide Black
Worst Matchups: The Rock, Reanimator

11) BUG:

Did not do very well, but had among the least amount of data, at just 41 matches.

Best Matchups: Sligh
Worst Matchups: Reanimator

12) Tinker
Tinker
TinkerSet: Urza's Legacy
Cost:
3
Color:
Blue
Type:
Sorcery
Rarity:
U
Number:
45
Artist:
Mike Raabe
Text:
At the time you play Tinker, sacrifice an artifact.Search your library for an artifact card and put that artifact into play. Shuffle your library afterward.
:

Did not do very well, but had relatively little data, at 72 matches. Also appears to have had more than its share of bad matchups.

Best Matchups: White Weenie
Worst Matchups: Reanimator, Sligh

13) Enchantress:

Did not do very well, but had relatively little data, at 59 matches.

Best Matchups: Suicide Black
Worst Matchups: Psychatog
Psychatog
PsychatogSet: Odyssey
Cost:
3
Color:
Multicolor
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Atog
Rarity:
U
Number:
292
Artist:
Edward P. Beard, Jr.
Power:
1
Toughness:
2
Text:
Discard a card from your hand: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn. Remove two cards in your graveyard from the game: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn.


14) Zombie Upheaval
Upheaval
UpheavalSet: Odyssey
Cost:
6
Color:
Blue
Type:
Sorcery
Rarity:
R
Number:
113
Artist:
Kev Walker
Text:
Return all permanents to their owners' hands.
:

Did the worst by far, winning just 31% of its matches. However, also had the least amount of data, at just 29 matches.

Best Matchups: Reanimator
Worst Matchups: Suicide Black


OVERALL CONCLUSIONS AS TO WHAT DECK TO PLAY:

Early indication are that Turbo Oath may be the best bet, though its stellar performance may have been partially due to the field’s lack of preparation for it.

Psychatog
Psychatog
PsychatogSet: Odyssey
Cost:
3
Color:
Multicolor
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Atog
Rarity:
U
Number:
292
Artist:
Edward P. Beard, Jr.
Power:
1
Toughness:
2
Text:
Discard a card from your hand: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn. Remove two cards in your graveyard from the game: Psychatog gets +1/+1 until end of turn.
appears to also be an excellent bet, especially if Turbo Oath does not prove to be a large and well-performing part of the metagame.

Hermit Druid
Hermit Druid
Hermit DruidSet: Stronghold
Cost:
2
Color:
Green
Type:
Creature
Sub Type:
Druid
Rarity:
R
Number:
58
Artist:
Heather Hudson
Power:
1
Toughness:
1
Text:
G, T: Reveal cards from the top of your library until you reveal a basic land card. Put that card into your hand and put all other revealed cards into your graveyard.
has potential, but it is also one of the deck types likely to be hurt most by metagame changes.

Suicide Black looks to be a good choice, and it may be one of the deck types most helped by metagame changes.

Aluren
Aluren
AlurenSet: Tempest
Cost:
4
Color:
Green
Type:
Enchantment
Rarity:
R
Artist:
April Lee
Text:
Any player may play a creature card with total casting cost 3 or less whenever he or she could play an instant and without paying its casting cost.
, The Rock, Reanimator, and Sligh all appear to be viable near-average-performing decks.

Hope all that helps and good luck!

Team Cardshark


Rate Article



Discuss Article

Click here to discuss this article in forum or leave comments for the author.

RSS feed RSS Feed


This article is provided to you by CardShark.com - A Better Way to Buy and Sell Collectable Games Online. Please check out the rest of our site - you won't be disappointed.

View More ArticlesView More Articles